Level 3 Intelligence Analyst Certification (Udemy.com)
Predictive Intelligence Analysis
Created by: Robert Folker
Last updated July 2019
What you will learn
- Apply critical thinking skills during the analytic process
- Demonstate the role of probabilities in predictive analysis
- Create and use probability trees
- Create and use utility trees and utility matrices
- Create and use an advanced utility matrix
- Understand how Bayes applies to intelligence predictions
- Use Excel to apply Bayes to aid intelligence analysis
How it compares
Against the other 503 rated Udemy courses in Teaching & Academics on CourseDuck:
- Rating4.5 out of 5higher than 42% of them
- Reviews1,841#94 of 504 by number of reviews
- Length2.1 hoursshorter than 69% of them
- Last updatedJuly 2019earlier than 85% of them
Course Description
The views expressed in this course are the instructor's alone and do not reflect the official position of the U.S. Government, the Intelligence Community, or the Department of Defense.
This course builds on the Level 1 and Level 2 courses on Intelligence Analysis to teach the student how to think in probabilities and structure their analysis to produce predictive intelligence. Upon completion of the course, the graduate will be able to use MS Excel to apply the Bayes Theorem to participate in forecasting tournaments and make specific intelligence predictions to prevent surprise.
Instructor Details
- 4.5 Rating
1,841 Reviews
Robert Folker
I have a 34-year combat-proven track record of tactical, operational, and strategic expertise in intelligence analysis and operations; communications and information technology; and special operations. I'm a graduate of and former instructor at the USAF Weapons School. I earned a Master of Science in Strategic Intelligence (MSSI) from the National Intelligence University and am a published author on intelligence analysis. I currently work as a senior consultant for PatchPlus Consulting, Inc.
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Reviews
By Victoria Stern on 11/15/2023
There was a lot of great information in this course. My main objections were how some lessons were constructed and how they were taught especially in the Bayes section. An extensive critique would take too long in this forum. Also, the 100% required for passing the 25 question practice test is absurd. The more you take the test, the sloppier you get. While it's certainly fair to require retests, it is not reasonable to make students test over and over once they've achieved a 90% or higher. This experience alone drove my overall course rating.
By Anonymized User on 1/11/2021
This course is challenging, hands down, but it gives great knowledge on how to properly predict possible events. The Bayes theorem is the key thing I pulled out of the certification. It is helpful due to the fact that it evolves due to the amount of evidence being provided in one direction or the other. I will look more into the topic. The Utility trees and matrices are difficult due to the utility value being an assigned number rather than a mathematical set number, but this is where being in another person's shoes helps the most. You use the value in order to predict what outcome a person/group wants which leads you to why they would want that outcome. It is difficult, but brilliant!
By Myron Ward on 12/20/2020
Good stuff!
By Sherry Farrior-Mccowan on 12/13/2020
He moves a little too quickly.
By Kaz Shakir on 11/26/2020
Overall good course, but might be a little bit too basic.
By Irawansyah on 11/2/2020
all course off intelligence is a good for me
By Lakhyajit Raman Malakar on 11/1/2020
The course was overall very good and informative. I feel it would help the learners if more real world examples were provided for the different methods explained in the course.
By David Mark Hutchesson on 10/21/2020
As the first two courses before, this one too so far is excellent and is a great follow on. It is though a little more challenging, which certainly makes you think.
By Jordan Moore on 10/14/2020
I learned a lot about probability and estimation, sparking a new interest in the area of forecasting/predicting...predicting the seemingly "unpredictable"
This is an ideal course to take you to the next step of Intelligence Analysis
By Anonymized User on 10/5/2020
Great exercises
By Lloyd Wright on 10/2/2020
bought this course not really knowing what to expect but some of the points covered in course has help me to determine and predict situations in my work life much more effectively.
By Benlamine Mohamed Sahbi on 10/1/2020
Very inspiring wish that there are more examples in the course
Quality Score
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Overall Score : 90 / 100








